Alan Greenspan is typically1 up at 5:30 every morning. He sits in the bath for an hour and a half, reading, thinking, and writing while the hot water flows. “He reads all sorts of data in the tub,” says Mitchell, his wife, “and he often brings his speeches quite waterlogged2 to the office.”
When Alan Greenspan Talks, Wall Street Listens
In Dec. 1996, with the stock market soaring3, Federal Reserve Board4 Chairman Alan Greenspan rose to make his remarks at a Washington, D.C. dinner party. His comments were so elliptical5 that some listeners failed to catch it when he wondered aloud if investors were showing “irrational exuberance6”.
But when Greenspan speaks, Wall Street listens. The next morning the Dow Jones industrial average7 plunged8 more than 140 points on speculation that9 he might cool the market by raising interest rates. False alarm: interest rates held steady.
Before a House banking subcommittee seven months later, Greenspan predicted that low unemployment10 and low inflation11 would continue in 1998. This time Wall Street took his comments to mean that there was no need to raise interest rates. The Dow Jones index surged12 155 points to a new high of 8061.65.
The Second Most Powerful Person in America
As Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, it is often stated that Alan Greenspan is second only to the President when it comes to the most powerful person in the United States, primarily because of his key role in managing the supply of money and credit13 in the U.S. banking system. His most important lever14 is the “federal funds rate,” which is what banks charge one another for funds borrowed overnight.
An ABC15 News article stated that almost half the adults in the United States can not name the Vice President, nine out of 10 know who Greenspan is. Since 1987, Greenspan has headed the seven-member board, fighting to keep inflation and unemployment down and increase consumer confidence in the economy. In 1998, his hard work seemed to have paid off16, as unemployment reached a 24-year low, inflation hit an 11-year low and consumer confidence was the highest it had been in 30 years.
Today, stock prices are down from their record highs in 2000. The United States suffered a moderate recession17, made worse by the terrorist18 attacks of September Eleventh, 2001. And since June, 2004, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates in a series of steps against inflation. Rates went up to the highest level in more than four years.
Balancing the Books
Greenspan was born in New York City in 1926, the only child of stockbroker19 Herbert and his wife, Rose. From an early age he demonstrated a knack20 for figures—adding long series of numbers in his head and memorizing the batting averages of virtually21 every major league baseball player.
Young Alan played the saxophone22 and clarinet23 , and won admission to The Julliard School in New York City. By the mid-1940s he was performing with the Henry Jerome Band. In a harbinger24 of things to come, he also kept the band's books. They balanced.
Later he began to read about finance and the stock market. He quit Julliard, enrolled at New York University and earned a master's degree in economics in 1950.
Greenspan got a job with the National Industrial Conference Board, where his assignment25 was to predict the demand for steel, aluminum and copper. There he began to display his greatest talent: “knowing how to take fragmented26 numbers,” as he describes it, “and develop from them a general picture of what's going on.”
The late Congressman Frank Ikard described Greenspan as “the kind of person who knows how many thousand flat-headed bolts are in a Chevrolet and what it would do to the economy if you left out27 three.”
To Leave Fed, Start Blog28 ?
On January 31st, 2006, Alan Greenspan stepped down as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, a post he has held for 18 years. President Bush chose his top economic adviser, Ben Bernanke, to replace him. Next day, the Senate Banking Committee approved the nomination for a vote in the full Senate. Mr. Bernanke says he will seek to continue the policies established during the Greenspan years.
So what does Mr. Greenspan—an economic hero to many, as well as a fixture30 on the D.C. party circuit—plan to do in his post-Fed life? Will he head off31 to Disneyland in a fit of retirement-induced “irrational exuberance”?
Probably not, he's a hardworking guy. The Times reports:
Mr. Greenspan is not disappearing. He plans to write a book and start a consulting firm called Greenspan Associates. And while he does plan to write and comment on the economy, he has vowed to avoid any comment about monetary32 policy.
[NBC News correspondent Andrea] Mitchell, his wife, said he recently started figuring out33 how to do his own research on the Internet; he is still in the process of34 getting a personal e-mail address. “He spent his entire adult life trying to understand how the economy is organized, and he's not going to stop now,” Ms. Mitchell said.
艾伦·格林斯潘每天清晨一般5∶30起床。浴缸里淌着热水，他就坐在里面阅读、思考或写点什么，一呆就是一个半小时。“他在浴缸里阅读各类资料，”他的妻子米切尔说，“他带到办公室去的讲稿常常是湿漉漉的。”
艾伦·格林斯潘一开腔，整个华尔街洗耳恭听
1996年12月，美国股市火爆，美国联邦储备委员会（以下简称美联储）主席艾伦·格林斯潘在华盛顿的一次晚宴上起身发表意见。他的评论含混不清，在场的有些人没能听懂他的意思。他大声质疑的是：有些证券投资者是否“热昏了头”？
但是华尔街对格林斯潘说的每一句话都听进去了。第二天上午，道·琼斯工业指数狂泻140多点，因为内行人揣测他可能会提高一直保持平稳的利率，让股市降温。结果是虚惊一场：利率维持不变。
7个月后，在一次众议院银行小组委员会的会议之前，艾伦预测：1998年失业率和通货膨胀率将持续走低。这一次，华尔街人士认为他的意思是没有必要提高利率，结果道·琼斯指数暴涨155点，创下8061.65点的新高纪录。
美国第二号权威人物
人们常说：在美国，作为美联储主席，艾伦·格林斯潘的权威仅次于总统，这主要是因为他在管理美国银行系统货币和信贷供应方面所起的关键作用。他最重要的杠杆是“联邦基金利率”，亦即银行之间一日借贷利率。
《美国广播公司新闻》的一篇文章写道：差不多一半以上的美国成年人不能说出副总统的名字，但却有十分之九的人知道格林斯潘是谁。自1987年上任以来，格林斯潘领导美联储的7人委员会致力于降低通货膨胀率和失业率，以增强消费者对经济的信心。1998年，他的艰辛努力似乎得到了回报，失业率降到了24年来的最低点，通胀率也跌到了11年来的最低点，而消费者信心指数则上升到30年来的最高点。
如今，股票价格已经从2000年创纪录的高点开始回落。2001年，美国经济小幅衰退，这种局面由于9·11恐怖袭击更是雪上加霜。自2004年6月以来，美联储采取了一系列步骤提高利率，以遏制通货膨胀。利率现已升至4年多以来的最高点。
收支平衡
1926年，格林斯潘出生于纽约市，是股票经纪人赫伯特与妻子罗斯的独子。自幼年起，他就显示出了数字方面的天赋——可以心算一长串数字的加法，也背得出棒球联队里每一个主击球手的击球率。
艾伦年轻时学过萨克斯管和单簧管，并被纽约市的朱利亚音乐学校录取。到20世纪40年代中期，他参加亨利·杰罗姆乐队演奏。由于有个未卜先知的大脑，他还掌管着乐队的帐目，而且管得很好。
后来，他开始阅读有关金融和股票市场方面的书籍。从朱利亚音乐学校退学后，他考入纽约大学，并于1950年获得经济学硕士学位。
格林斯潘在全国工业委员会谋得一份差事，工作就是预测钢、铝和铜的需求量。他在这项工作中开始大显身手：“利用零零碎碎的数字，勾勒出事态发展的全景。” 正如他自己所说。
已故国会议员弗兰克·伊卡如此评价格林斯潘：他是“这样一种人，他知道一辆雪佛莱车上有几千颗平头螺栓，而且知道如果少了其中3颗会对经济产生何种影响。”
离开美联储，开始写博客？
2006年1月31日，艾伦·格林斯潘从担任了18年之久的美联储主席职位上卸任。布什总统选择了他的首席经济顾问本·伯南克作为他的继任者。第二天，参议院银行委员会在参议院投票通过了这一任命。伯南克先生说他将沿用格林斯潘在任时制定的政策。
那么，格林斯潘先生——众人心目中的经济界英雄，华盛顿社交界的焦点人物——在卸任后有何打算呢？他会因退休诱发的“过于精力旺盛”而奔进迪斯尼乐园吗？
可能性不大，他可是一个勤奋的家伙！据英国《泰晤士报》报道：
格林斯潘先生并没有消失。他计划写一本书，开一间咨询公司，取名格林斯潘联谊会。虽然他打算著书，对经济发表看法，但是他发誓不会对货币政策发表任何评论。
他的妻子米切尔（美国国家广播公司新闻记者）说，他最近开始考虑如何在互联网上从事研究工作；目前他正在申请自己的电子邮箱。“他把整个成年时光都用于探索经济的组织方式，直到现在也还没打算停下来。”米切尔女士如是说。
1. typically [?謖tipik?藜li] adv. 一般地，通常
2. waterlogged [?謖w?蘅?蘼t?藜l?蘅gd] adj. 浸透水的
3. soar [s?蘅?蘼] v. 剧增，高涨
4. Federal Reserve Board 美国联邦储备委员会，简称美联储
5. elliptical [i?謖liptik?藜l] adj. （语言、文字等）极为简要的；（语言、文体等因省略过多而）晦涩的
6. irrational exuberance 非理性繁荣exuberance [ig?謖zju?蘼b?藜r?藜ns] n. 丰富，茂盛
7. Dow Jones industrial average 道·琼斯工业平均指数（表明纽约股票交易所所选股票相对价格升降趋势的指数）
8. plunge [pl?蘧nd?廾] v. （使）骤然前倾或下降
9. on speculation that... 推测…
speculation [?謣spekju?謖lei?蘩?藜n] n. 猜测，推断
10. unemployment [?謣?蘧nim?謖pl?蘅im?藜nt] n. 失业；失业率
11. inflation [in?謖flei?蘩?藜n] n. 通货膨胀
12. surge [s?藜?蘼d?廾] v. 急剧上升，激增
13. credit [?謖kredit] n. 信用，信贷
14. lever [?謖li?蘼v?藜] n. 杠杆；控制杆
15. ABC： American Broadcasting Company的简称,美国广播公司。
16. pay off 得到好结果，取得成功
17. recession [ri?謖se?蘩?藜n] n. 不景气，衰退
18. terrorist [?謖ter?藜rist] n. 恐怖分子
19. stockbroker [?謖st?蘅kbr?藜uk?藜] n. 股票（或证券）经纪人
20. knack [n?覸k] n. 技能，本领
21. virtually [?謖v?藜?蘼tju?藜li] adv. 差不多
22. saxophone [?謖s?覸ks?藜f?藜un] n. 萨克斯管
23. clarinet [kl?覸ri?謖net] n. 单簧管，竖笛
24. harbinger [?謖h?藁?蘼bind?廾?藜] n. 前兆，预兆
25. assignment [?藜?謖sainm?藜nt] n. （分派的）任务
26. fragmented [fr?覸g?謖mentid] adj. 不完整的，无条理的
27. leave out 遗漏
28. blog 博客，亦即网络日志
29. nomination [n?蘅mi?謖nei?蘩?藜n] n. 提名，任命
30. fixture [?謖fikst?蘩?藜] n. 长期与某地（某事、某项活动）有关的人
31. head off = go 离开
32. monetary [?謖m?蘧nit?藜ri] adj. 货币的，金融的
33. figure out （美口）想出，明白
34. in the process of 在…的过程中